Rob Purks CIO & Management Consultant

The Hidden Risk of AI: Building Transformation Programs for a Future That May Not Exist

For decades, enterprise transformation followed a familiar model: define a future state, build a multi-year roadmap, and execute with discipline. That model is now under pressure—not because transformation is no longer necessary, but because the assumptions behind it are rapidly breaking down.

Large transformation programs rely on a core premise: that we can reasonably predict the future operating model. In an AI-driven environment, that premise is increasingly fragile. Capabilities are evolving faster than planning cycles, and organizations are designing multi-year programs against a moving target.

McKinsey & Company has highlighted that while generative AI could create significant economic value, organizations are capturing impact fastest through incremental deployment embedded in existing workflows, not large, monolithic transformations. Value is emerging in shorter cycles, not long-duration bets.

At the same time, execution risk was already high. Boston Consulting Group estimates that 70% of digital transformations fail to meet their objectives, even in more stable environments. AI does not reduce that risk—it amplifies it.

But there is a more fundamental issue emerging—one that is still underappreciated.

We are designing transformation programs without a clear understanding of what AI will actually be capable of in two to three years.

This introduces a new form of exposure. Not just whether a program will be delivered successfully, but whether it is solving the right problem at all. Entire layers of functionality being built today—workflow orchestration, decision support, even elements of system integration—may be simplified, automated, or eliminated as AI capabilities mature.

The risk is no longer just execution failure. It is design risk leading to solution irrelevance.

Programs that are delivered on time, on budget, and exactly as designed—but no longer aligned with the business or technology landscape by the time they go live.

This is why we are seeing leading organizations shift away from “big-bang” transformation toward more adaptive models. Composable architectures, incremental modernization, and shorter investment cycles are becoming the preferred approach—not as a compromise, but as a strategic response to uncertainty.

The question is no longer, “What should our business look like in five years?”  It is, “How do we remain adaptable over the next five quarters?”

For CEOs, CIOs, and private equity leaders, this has direct implications for capital allocation and risk management. Transformation programs must be structured with optionality—designed to evolve as capabilities evolve, rather than locking into a fixed future state.

In many cases, the right answer is not to stop transformation—but to deconstruct it.

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Rob Purks is a Founding Partner at Lumerai Advisors , a technology strategy advisory firm. Lumerai Advisors provides an unbiased perspective which is not influenced by vendor relationships.  With over 150 years of CIO and technology experience, the founding partners bring an honest and complete perspective on technology strategies and challenges.